Forecasting 2018

 

December 2017 has been a great month for Williamson County home prices, which have stayed consistently high through the year. The current median sales price increased to $497,639. This makes December the highest  price increase to date. Brentwood, Arrington, and College Grove are still  on top of the pack, but Brentwood took the lead with a median price of $847,750. Closings were also up  again this month at 451 units compared to 407 homes closed in November.

 

For the 2018  forecast Realtor.com® partnered with Builders Digital Experience (BDX) to deliver its unique housing economic insights to the builder community, releasing a special edition of its 2018 Housing Forecast on January 9th at The NAHB International Builders' Show®. This forecast highlights a growing economy and positive demographic trends, creating opportunities in the housing market despite the affordability challenges buyers will face from rising prices and mortgage rates. 

 

Key takeaways for builders in 2018 include:

 

1. Entry-level home construction a huge opportunity  Entry-level homes will continue to see price gains due to the larger number of buyers who can afford them and more limited homes available for sale in this price range.

 

2. Millennials anticipated to gain market share in all home price segments  With the largest cohort of millennials expected to turn 30 in 2020, their homeownership market share is expected to increase. As they age into peak family forming years, their top housing priorities will shift from proximity to urban life to more space and quality schools.

 

3.Southern markets predicted to lead in sales growth – Strong economies and healthy building levels will help drive Southern markets to beat the national average home sales growth. Builders who can adapt to regulatory hurdles in more challenging Western markets will find that prices still outperform national average growth in this region.

 

4.The tax bill is a game changer – With the passing of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the wealth and income effect of tax cuts will likely stimulate demand and increased production in the short term, but could lead to fewer sales and impact prices negatively over time in markets with higher prices and property taxes. Be wary of economic capacity constraints as inflation will kick in and the Fed will more aggressively increment interest rate increases.

 

December 2017

 

Closings

Median
Price

Days on
Market

Active
Inventory

Under
Contract

Residential

451

$497,639

34

1,232

992

Condos

34

$230,000

23

46

78

Total

485

-

-

1,278

1,070

Land

14

$293,750

153

383

81

December 2016 Comparison

 

Closings

Median

Days on Market

Active
Inventory

Under  Contract

Residential

460

$449,678

32

1,112

1,024

Condos

24

$272,700

33

64

63

Total

484

-

-

1,176

1,087

Land

33

$210,000

125

381

70

Special Note- Definitions of Statistics:

* Closings-Listed properties that have closed in the month.
Averaged Closed Price-The average price of listed properties that have closed in a month.
Median Closed Price-  The median price of listed properties that have closed in a month.
Days on Market– The average number of days from the first date available for showing to the Binding Contract Date (of an offer to purchase) for listed properties within a month.
*
Total Inventory– The total number of properties that are listed but not closed.
*
Active Inventory– The total number of listed properties that are under contract and have note closed.
*
Under Contract Inventory– The total number of listed properties that are under contract and  have not closed.
*
New Listing– Properties listed for sale within the month.
*
New Under Contract**- Listings that have a Biding Contact Date within the month with the statuses of Under Contract Showing, Under Contract-Not Showing and Closed.
**This statistic is now calculated using Binding Contract Date and previously reported as “New Pending”

 

 

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